Defense that could be in store for regression: Kansas City Chiefs EPA per play allowed outside redone : 0.01 (22nd) You want to be at your best as a run defense inside the 20-yard line when there are more short-yardage opportunities, but the Chiefs are unlikely to repeat that kind of success is in 2020.
We can go deeper than that and look into the run, passing, and redone departments of an offense to narrow down how they work. If they have a fair run game with a struggling offensive line, chances are they are going to need to throw to their strengths.
We often criticize offensives for being too run-heavy, like the Seattle Seahawks, who are lucky to have Russell Wilson. Tennessee has tried to rely upon the run for a few years now, and the passing offense has struggled.
When things began to equal out under Ryan Tanneries, the offense became complete and provided more success. Redone touchdowns mean that they were excellent at finding the end zone inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.
If you have a strong third-down conversion rate, you have better odds of putting together overall offensive numbers. That means opting to go for it instead of settling for field goals or punting on 4th and three around the midfield mark.
We see lower-performing teams failing on fourth down at a higher rate than the better offenses. Now going one step further, you will need to understand that just because a team is in red in a certain area, it does not mean that it is a bad thing.
Some teams don’t rank inside the top half in redone attempts but are efficient enough to where they produce touchdowns when they do. Teams that are efficient or run a slower pace can rank lower in the number of plays they run, to where their production is solid, but the number of plays and attempts they carry are going to be average to even below average.
Part of the reason why some teams will rank higher or lower than average is because of the offensive scheme they run. San Francisco was a great example of this, alongside Baltimore this past season.
Teams that throw the ball more can be because of their offensive build, coaching style, or because of their defense. The defensive aspect we will get to in a minute, but pass-heavy offenses can still generate a lot of rushing attempts as well.
Looking back throughout the last few seasons, teams with more pass attempts also tie into fantasy points. Even some poorer teams in the league where fantasy viable because they were able to throw the ball a lot.
Teams that ranked high in pass attempts might also have poorer defenses. The NFC South has been a shootout division over recent times, mainly because of how the offenses are run.
A lot of teams that finish at the bottom of the league will have higher pass attempts in the rankings. Teams that play in closer games with a heavy run scheme or are leading, their second-half offenses will look a little different.
It will be about milking the clock or taking long possessions, which are tied to rushing attempts. You might hear a lot about negative and positive regression, especially in the scoring department.
It can also work the other way where teams are historically efficient, and that balances out the next season where things come back down to earth a little. On the flip side, if a team ranks 20th in attempts and finishes 2nd in touchdowns, they might be due some negative regression.
We have also seen some top teams in redone touchdown percentage finish in the middle of the league in points and yards. Even teams that have slightly below average redone numbers can produce strong points.
There is a strong correlation with the bottom 10% of redone numbers for touchdowns produced and how they turn out for points. If a team gets a lot of redone attempts but fails to convert at a league-average rate, data suggests there is still some positive regression that can occur.
You are going to find two people in this world, one who love the analytical side of football, and the other who doesn’t. Overall we want our teams to score when getting close to the end zone, and it is disappointing when they don’t.
The Packers were a balanced attack averaging 256 yards through the air and 132 on the ground Drew Lock led the team, but they did have some positional issues with backups for a few weeks.
Green Bay averaged 31.8 points per game in the regular season. The Packers averaged 389 yards per game and Aaron Rodgers posted MVP-like numbers with 48 touchdowns.
Any plays run inside that mark will turn into redone stats. The goal is to narrow down how offenses and defenses run in a crucial area of the field.
Green Bay averaged 31.8 points per game and scored an amazing 80% of the time in the redone. They allowed the fewest points and yards of any team and registered 53 sacks in the regular season, second only to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Former Chicago Bears head coach Mike Dickey looks forward to a classic match-up at Lambeau Field Saturday afternoon in a NFC Divisional Playoff contest. Rodgers has been on a mission and compiled league MVP-worthy statistics: 48 touchdowns (one more than JK Scott punts), 4,299 passing yards, five interceptions, and a 121.5 passer rating.
The most interesting individual matchup will be shutdown corner back Galen Ramsey on Packers’ star receiver Dante Adams. And the sure-tackling Rams will also be focused on limiting versatile Aaron Jones, a dual threat as a breakaway runner and receiver.
Jared Goff and his surgically repaired thumb will start at quarterback, where Green Bay has the obvious advantage. Running back Cam Makers will be a challenge for the Packers’ surging defense, a key factor in the team’s six-game winning streak.
Cooper Krupp (90 receptions) and Robert Woods (92 catches) team with tight ends Tyler ZigBee and Gerald Everett to form a solid receiving corps. For the Packers, receivers Allen Hazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling may see more targets if the Rams concentrate on taking Adams out of the game.
Tight end Robert Tongan is a favorite target of Rodgers in the redone, as evidenced by his 11 touchdown receptions. The 11-6 Rams displayed their grit and resiliency at Seattle, overcoming the loss of starting quarterback John Wilford (neck stinger) and compiling 333 total yards and five scoring drives on the road.
Whichever defense best stops the run (Jones vs Makers) and creates the key turnover in the second half. Jan 16, 2021; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrates after running in a touchdown during the first half of a NFC Divisional Round playoff game against the Los Angeles Rams at Lambeau Field.
Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports The Green Bay Packers are headed to the NFC championship game, coming through at Lambeau Field and knocking off the Los Angeles Rams in the divisional round 32-18. Aaron Rodgers and Co. set the tone early, opening things up with a quick drive down the field.
After a 3-3 tie coming out of the first quarter, Green Bay’s offense started rolling. With the help of some defensive mistakes by Los Angeles and dominance in the trenches, the Packers jumped out to a 19-10 lead at halftime.
Green Bay kept it rolling out of the break with Aaron Jones erupting for a 60-yard run, setting up a touchdown and a 15-point lead. After hours of getting dominated on the ground, Rodgers dropped back and fired the dagger into the Rams’ heart.
It sealed the victory and means Lambeau Field will be hosting the NFC championship next week. Let’s examine the winners and losers from the Green Bay Packers’ 32-18 victory over the Los Angeles Rams.
Since Aaron Rodgers took over at quarterback, the Green Bay Packers have never hosted an NFC championship game. He took advantage of open running lanes, bursting through the Rams’ defense for chunks of yards.
Plenty of that can be attributed to playing through torn rib cartilage, a painful injury that limited his physicality and availability. With that said the perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate and future Hall of Fame was pushed around for most of the night by Green Bay’s offensive line.
After repeatedly losing one-on-one battles to guard Elton Jenkins, Donald grabbed his facemask after the play and drew a 15-yard penalty. It turns out, Green Bay recognized a brilliant offensive mind and took advantage of striking gold.
Fleur has been instrumental in scheming up an offense that uses pre-snap motions to get mismatches, bullies teams with the running game and quick passes, then kills them with deep play-action shots. When the Packers got near the goal line and Dante Adams drew Galen Ramsey in coverage, Fleur used pre-wrap motion to free up his All-Pro receiver, and it worked to perfection.
Finally, after controlling this contest with the ground game for three quarters, Fleur dialed up the perfect pass and Rodgers executed for the game-clinching score. While Donald’s rib injury played a role, the Rams’ collective effort and execution were poor.